SubscribeKarl Rove: Obama would win if election were today
39 new state polls released in the first three days of October have given Barack Obama his first lead over the magic number of 270 since mid-July. Minnesota (10 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV) both moved from toss-up to Obama, giving him 273 electoral votes to McCain’s 163, with 102 votes remaining as a toss-up. If the election were held today, Obama would win every state John Kerry won in 2004, while adding New Mexico (5 EV), Iowa (7 EV), and Colorado (9 EV) to his coalition. Remember, though, that these state polls are a lagging indicator and most do not include any surveying done after the vice-presidential debate on Thursday night.
This is encouraging. Why? Because the election isn’t going to be held today, it will be held a month from now. A lot can and undoubtedly will happen between now and then. Also because these numbers don’t reflect the bounce Palin will have scored in the VP debate.
McCain has to do everything right between now and then - and that means letting the people in on what kind of politician and leader Obama has proven to be with his thin resume.
